University of York
Quantitative Large Amplitude Shape Dynamics:
September 23 - November 15, 2013
Error estimates of theoretical models: a guide
This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical-error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover inter-dependences by correlation analysis. The basic concepts are illustrated through simple examples. By providing theoretical error bars on predicted quantities and using statistical methods to study correlations between observables, theory can significantly enhance the feedback between experiment and nuclear modeling.
The physics of heavy nuclei demands an understanding of large amplitude shape changes. Nuclear fission in particular has a prominent role as a source of energy, and as a terminator of r-rocess nucleosynthesis. The quest to extend the chart of nuclides to superheavy elements is sharply constrained by the inverse of fission, the heavy-ion fusion reaction, as well as by the depletion of superheavy progenitors by fission itself. Even after 70+ years since its discovery, nuclear fission remains an active field of experimental research and continues to pose formidable challenges to theory. It is a crucial source of mid-mass isotopes to access the part of the nuclear chart at high neutron excess asymmetry.
The intention of this program is first, bring together theorists trying to build predictive theories of the underlying shape dynamics to compare various approaches and computational methodologies. Hopefully one will see a new era in the theory taking advantage of the large growth in computer resources that theory now has available. In addition, the experimental advances in fission, fusion, and other reactions related to large amplitude shape changes will be an integral part of the program.
Topics to be discussed:
Reevaluation of basic concepts
Week 8 11/11-11/15. Computational developments